In the opening week of NCAA football the Big 12 went undefeated. The Big Ten did not. The PAC-12 did not. The almighty SEC also did not. The Big East went undefeated, though it would not have if TCU would be in their line up as the Horned Frogs were defeated by unranked Baylor from the Big 12.
If the Big 12 collapses it will not be for a lack of athletic competitiveness. Sure Colorado will probably be a ringer in the PAC-12 this year boosting the relative rankings of established teams in the conference, but it could be interesting seeing what happens when Nebraska hits perennial Big Ten favorites Michigan State, Ohio State, and Wisconsin. Nebraska also lost its membership in the AAU which probably hits on the scholarly image of the Big Ten.
While a lot of editorial length goes towards hypothetical 14 and 16 team super conferences in the coming years. What happens if the Big 12 contracts to a Big 8 again, managing to keep its AQ status. If the two Oklahoma teams flee to the Pacific Coast while A&M jumps to an already overcrowded SEC and other defections happen from the Big 12, while the University of Texas tries to pull a Notre Dame there are still ways to keep the Big 12′s AQ status alive.
Florida A&M represents the sort of academically and athletically competitive school that could thrive in a resurrected Big 8 or reconstituted Big 12, and it may be a better cultural fit than Houston or SMU around which speculation of Big 12 membership usually condenses. Then there’s the chance a few teams from the SEC or PAC may feel things are getting a bit crowded, like Arkansas.
The last thing I would expect is a Texas departure from the Big 12. No other conference would let operate functionally as an independent.